Microcap Ledger How do microcap stocks react when an ATM offering is announced? 900 programs, 2021–2026
We tracked 900 new at-the-market programs from Nasdaq and NYSE American microcaps. The median stock trailed IWM by 2.5% on the first session and 40% after 120 sessions. In a hand-read subsample, most programs were barely used.
- Study period
- New ATM sales agreements announced 8 January 2021 to 12 October 2026; prices through the 12 October 2026 close
- Sample
- 900 new ATM programs from 666 companies; usage subsample of 65 programs (43 with determinable sales)
The short version
- The median stock trailed IWM by 2.5% on the first session after a new ATM was announced, 11.6% after 20 sessions and 39.6% after 120 sessions. 78.8% were behind IWM at 120 sessions (816 programs).
- Bigger programs relative to market value went with weaker returns: the 60-session median was -15.5% against IWM for programs under 10% of market value (29), -20.6% for 10–50% (443) and -29.7% for over 50% (345).
- Split-adjusted shares outstanding rose a median of 23.0% in six months and 42.2% in 12 months. In 31% of programs the share count more than doubled within a year (196 of 628). That growth includes every kind of issuance, not only ATM sales.
- In a hand-read subsample of 43 programs, the median company sold 7.9% of the announced amount within 12 months. 24 sold less than 10% and 13 sold nothing. 11 sold more than half.
- Quarters with heavy ATM selling (shares sold over 5% of shares outstanding) had a median return of -40.8% against IWM, against -11.2% in quarters with no sales (subsample: 27 and 84 quarters).
When a microcap announces a new at-the-market (ATM) program, its stock usually goes on to lag the market, and the lag grows with time. Across 900 new ATM programs from Nasdaq and NYSE American microcaps, the median stock trailed the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) by 2.5% on the first session and by 39.6% after 120 sessions. The announcement is not the same as selling, though. In a hand-read subsample, most programs were barely used in their first year.
These are associations. Companies that set up ATMs tend to need cash, and the same pressures can drive both the decision and the share price. How ATMs work is covered in our ATM offering explainer.
The announcement
Return against IWM after a new ATM program
Chart data
| Median abnormal return | Mean abnormal return | |
|---|---|---|
| +1 | −2.5% | −2.5% |
| +5 | −4.8% | −4.2% |
| +20 | −11.6% | −9.4% |
| +60 | −24.6% | −18.8% |
| +120 | −39.6% | −25.3% |
| Sessions after announcement | Programs | Median vs IWM | Mean vs IWM | Share behind IWM | 10th percentile | 90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1 | 899 | -2.5% | -2.5% | 68.3% | -11.7% | +5.8% |
| +5 | 896 | -4.8% | -4.2% | 70.3% | -20.7% | +11.4% |
| +20 | 887 | -11.6% | -9.4% | 73.6% | -39.2% | +21.5% |
| +60 | 863 | -24.6% | -18.8% | 77.5% | -70.0% | +31.8% |
| +120 | 816 | -39.6% | -25.3% | 78.8% | -89.0% | +40.3% |
The median company had a market value of $48.5M at the announcement. The median program was for 42.6% of that value. Companies with under $75M of public float are subject to the baby shelf rule limit of one-third of public float in 12 months. Market value here includes shares held by affiliates, so it is larger than public float.
Size, sales agent and year
Median return against IWM, by program size relative to market value
Chart data
| +5 days median abnormal | +20 days median abnormal | +60 days median abnormal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| <10% of market cap (n=29) | −3.9% | −10.4% | −15.5% |
| 10-50% of market cap (n=443) | −4.5% | −10.6% | −20.6% |
| >50% of market cap (n=345) | −4.9% | −14.1% | −29.7% |
Programs that were large relative to the company did worse. After 60 sessions, the median return against IWM was -15.5% for programs under 10% of market value, -20.6% for 10–50% and -29.7% for programs over 50%. After 120 sessions the gap held: -33.6%, -35.8% and -46.8%. The under-10% group is small (29 programs), so treat that figure with care.
Median 20-session return against IWM, by sales agent
Chart data
| +20 days median abnormal | |
|---|---|
| H.C. Wainwright (n=104) | −11.7% |
| Jefferies (n=68) | −7.8% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald (n=65) | −13.0% |
| A.G.P./Alliance Global (n=63) | −10.9% |
| B. Riley (n=57) | −17.0% |
| Maxim Group (n=56) | −17.1% |
| Roth Capital (n=48) | −11.2% |
| TD Cowen (n=46) | −11.0% |
| Sales agent (first named) | Programs | Median vs IWM, +1 | +20 | +60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.C. Wainwright | 104 | -2.2% | -11.7% | -29.5% |
| Jefferies | 68 | -1.8% | -7.8% | -16.2% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | 65 | -3.3% | -13.0% | -19.9% |
| A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners | 63 | -2.2% | -10.9% | -29.1% |
| B. Riley | 57 | -2.1% | -17.0% | -29.9% |
| Maxim Group | 56 | -2.7% | -17.1% | -40.1% |
| Roth Capital | 48 | -4.1% | -11.2% | -19.9% |
| TD Cowen | 46 | -1.5% | -11.0% | -11.7% |
Programs led by TD Cowen and Jefferies had the smallest 60-session declines; Maxim Group and B. Riley programs had the largest. The differences may reflect which companies each agent works with, which this study does not test. Every agent with 40 or more programs had a negative median at every horizon. The agent was identified on the cover for 866 of 900 programs.
Median return against IWM, by announcement year
Chart data
| +20 days median abnormal | +60 days median abnormal | |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 (n=155) | −10.1% | −20.4% |
| 2022 (n=126) | −12.8% | −20.3% |
| 2023 (n=120) | −11.3% | −27.7% |
| 2024 (n=162) | −10.2% | −25.8% |
| 2025 (n=197) | −12.9% | −31.2% |
| 2026 (n=140) | −12.9% | −18.4% |
The pattern held in every year from 2021 to 2026, with 20-session medians between -10.1% and -12.9%. Programs announced in 2025 had the weakest 120-session median (-49.2%).
Share count after the announcement
Split-adjusted shares outstanding rose a median of 23.0% in the six months after the announcement (738 programs) and 42.2% in 12 months (628). 196 programs (31%) were followed by more than a doubling of the share count within a year. The figure counts all new shares: ATM sales, but also warrants, convertibles and other offerings, so it is an upper bound on what the ATM itself added. 203 programs (23%) were followed by a reverse split within 12 months. See stock dilution.
Announcement vs actual selling
An ATM is a ceiling, not a sale. To see how much was used, we drew a random sample of 65 programs announced by 30 June 2025 and read the ATM notes in their next four or five 10-Q and 10-K reports. 43 had sales figures we could tie to the specific agreement. The other 22 did not disclose separable figures, so they are left out. This is a subsample, and the figures below apply to these 43 programs only.
| Sold within 12 months, share of announced amount (43 programs) | Programs |
|---|---|
| Nothing | 13 |
| More than 0% but under 10% | 11 |
| 10% to 50% | 8 |
| Over 50% | 11 |
The median program sold 7.9% of its announced amount in its first year. Three sold more than the amount first announced, and three more sold at least 94% of it.
Quarters with and without ATM selling (subsample)
Chart data
| Median abnormal return in the quarter | Median change in shares outstanding | |
|---|---|---|
| No sales (n=84) | −11.2% | +0.5% |
| Light (under 1%) (n=21) | −25.8% | +4.0% |
| Moderate (1-5%) (n=14) | −26.8% | +10.9% |
| Heavy (over 5%) (n=27) | −40.8% | +19.6% |
The selling itself lined up with weak returns. We split 146 company-quarters from the subsample by shares sold under the ATM as a share of shares outstanding at the start of the quarter.
| Quarter type (subsample) | Quarters | Programs | Median return vs IWM in the quarter | Median change in shares outstanding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No ATM sales | 84 | 31 | -11.2% | +0.5% (56 quarters) |
| Light, under 1% of shares | 21 | 14 | -25.8% | +4.0% (11) |
| Moderate, 1–5% | 14 | 11 | -26.8% | +10.9% (9) |
| Heavy, over 5% | 27 | 17 | -40.8% | +19.6% (13) |
Heavy-selling quarters were also the most spread out: the mean for that group was -3.4%, against a median of -40.8%, because some of those quarters included sharp rallies (the 90th percentile was +114%). The order of events runs both ways. Selling can pressure the price, and a falling price means more shares must be sold to raise the same cash.
Outliers
| Company | Announcement | What the filing said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KULR Technology Group (KULR) | 5 Jul 2024 | $20.0M At The Market Offering Agreement with Craig-Hallum | +613% vs IWM over 120 sessions |
| Perspective Therapeutics (CATX) | 20 Nov 2023 | At Market Issuance Sales Agreement with Oppenheimer, B. Riley and JonesTrading | +554% vs IWM over 120 sessions |
| United States Antimony (UAMY) | 13 Nov 2024 | $25.0M sales agreement with A.G.P.; third-quarter results the same week | +483% vs IWM over 120 sessions |
| Agrify (AGFY) | 18 Oct 2022 | $50.0M equity distribution agreement with Canaccord Genuity, the day a 1-for-10 reverse split took effect | -59.8% vs IWM on the first session; -100.6% over 120 sessions |
| Puma Biotechnology (PBYI) | 5 Nov 2021 | $50.0M Open Market Sale Agreement with Jefferies, filed the same day as third-quarter results | -38.6% vs IWM on the first session |
Method
- Sample: 900 new ATM programs (666 companies), Nasdaq (792) and NYSE American (108), market value under $300M at the close before the announcement.
- New programs only: 487 amended agreements and 608 refreshed or older-agreement prospectuses were dropped, along with 185 programs from foreign private issuers and 160 from NYSE companies.
- Size relative to market value: cover maximum over market value. 19 ratios above 20 times were treated as data errors and left unbucketed.
- Returns: split-adjusted closes against IWM. Companies that left the exchange stay in the sample and are carried at later prints or their last close. Measured only on stocks still trading, the 120-session median was -38.3%.
- Share counts: cover-page shares outstanding near the announcement and near +6 and +12 months, restated for splits using split-adjusted versus unadjusted prices, with checks for XBRL scaling errors.
- Usage subsample: 65 randomly drawn programs announced by 30 June 2025; sales read by hand from 10-Q and 10-K notes. Figures are gross where stated, otherwise net.
Prices are previous-close data from Alpaca Markets (SIP), through 12 October 2026. Facts as of 13 October 2026.
How we did it
New at-the-market sales agreements found with SEC EDGAR full-text search in Form 424B5 prospectus supplements and Form 8-K Item 1.01 reports, then read in full. A program counts as new when the sales agreement is dated within 21 days of the filing, or (where no date is stated) an 8-K reports it within 10 days or the company filed no ATM prospectus in the prior year. Amended agreements, supplements to earlier prospectuses and refreshed prospectuses for old agreements are excluded. Filings by one company within 30 days are one program. Kept: Nasdaq or NYSE American companies, US domestic filers, a market value under $300M at the close before the announcement (cover-page shares outstanding times that close). SPACs and Onfolio Holdings (ONFO), which owns Microcap Ledger, are excluded. Program size and sales agent come from the prospectus cover. The event session is the first session at or after the earliest filing's acceptance time (after 4pm ET means the next session). Returns run from the close before it, use Alpaca SIP split-adjusted daily closes and are compared with IWM. Share-count growth uses cover-page shares outstanding restated for splits. Actual ATM sales come from 10-Q and 10-K text, read by hand, for a random sample.
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Sources
- SEC EDGAR full-text search: Form 424B5 filings mentioning an at the market offering
- SEC EDGAR full-text search: Form 8-K filings mentioning a sales agreement and at the market
- SEC EDGAR submissions and XBRL APIs (filing histories, cover-page shares outstanding)
- Alpaca Markets (SIP): daily bars, split-adjusted and unadjusted, previous-close data
- 17 CFR 230.415(a)(4): at the market offerings
- KULR Technology Group 8-K: At The Market Offering Agreement with Craig-Hallum ($20.0M) · 8-K · filed 2024-07-03
- Perspective Therapeutics 8-K: At Market Issuance Sales Agreement with Oppenheimer, B. Riley and JonesTrading · 8-K · filed 2023-11-17
- United States Antimony 424B5: sales agreement with A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners ($25.0M) · 424B5 · filed 2024-11-12
- Agrify 8-K: equity distribution agreement with Canaccord Genuity ($50.0M) · 8-K · filed 2022-10-18
- Agrify 8-K: 1-for-10 reverse stock split effective 18 October 2022 · 8-K · filed 2022-10-17
- Puma Biotechnology 8-K: Open Market Sale Agreement with Jefferies ($50.0M) · 8-K · filed 2021-11-04
- Puma Biotechnology 8-K: third-quarter 2021 results (Item 2.02) · 8-K · filed 2021-11-04